Index Methodology
How the Human Replacement Index (HRI) is calculated and what it measures.
The Concept
HRI tracks how fast AI is replacing human labor across six critical dimensions. The index aggregates real-time data from labor markets, AI research, and industry reports into a single number on a 0–100 scale.
Higher values indicate greater displacement of human workers. The countdown timer estimates the days remaining until AI can perform at least 50% of tasks currently done by humans — the threshold at which labor markets are expected to restructure irreversibly.
The Six Factors
Automation Rate
25%Share of professions under active automation pressure. Measured across 800+ occupations using O*NET task decomposition and LLM capability benchmarks.
Source: BLS, O*NET, Stanford HAI Index
AI Tools Growth
15%Monthly count of newly launched AI tools and agents tracked across ProductHunt, GitHub releases, and Hugging Face. Signals ecosystem velocity.
Source: Hugging Face, GitHub, ProductHunt
AI-Driven Layoffs
20%Job eliminations explicitly attributed to AI efficiency gains. Aggregated from SEC filings, earnings calls, and WARN Act notices.
Source: Layoffs.fyi, SEC EDGAR, BLS
LLM Adoption
15%Monthly active users across ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and Copilot. Proxy for mainstream AI integration into daily work.
Source: SimilarWeb, Sensor Tower, company reports
AI Investment
15%Global venture capital and corporate R&D funding directed at AI. Captures upstream pressure driving future displacement.
Source: PitchBook, Crunchbase, CB Insights
Jobs at Risk
10%Forward-looking estimate of workforce at automation risk by 2030, aggregating projections from Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, and the OECD.
Source: Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, OECD
Score Calculation
Each factor is normalized on a 0–100 scale, where 0 means the metric is at pre-AI-revolution baseline (2019) and 100 means it has reached a saturation threshold associated with majority human replacement. The weighted sum produces the final HRI score.
50% Replacement Countdown
The countdown estimates days until AI can perform at least 50% of current human job tasks economically. The projection is based on:
- Current HRI trajectory (rolling 90-day slope)
- Model capability doubling time from benchmark trends (MMLU, HumanEval, GPQA)
- Rate of enterprise AI deployment and workflow integration
- Historical automation diffusion curves from previous industrial waves
- Labor market flexibility and retraining capacity
Threat Levels
| Index | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 0–25 | STABLE | AI complements human work. Minimal displacement. Pre-2022 baseline. |
| 26–50 | WARNING | Acceleration phase. Early adopter industries restructuring. Training gap widening. |
| 51–75 | DANGER | Mass displacement underway. White-collar sectors shrinking. Policy response lagging. |
| 76–100 | CRITICAL | Majority of jobs automated. Labor market restructured. New social contract required. |
Data Sources
HRI aggregates data from authoritative labor market, research, and industry sources:
News Impact Classification
Each news item is classified by its replacement impact:
| Impact | Event Type |
|---|---|
| POSITIVE | Reskilling programs, UBI pilots, regulation, worker protections |
| MODERATE | New AI tool launches, moderate workforce restructuring, productivity gains |
| HIGH | Major layoffs, sector-wide displacement, capability breakthroughs |
| CRITICAL | Mass layoffs citing AI, AGI-level capability gains, entire role categories eliminated |
The Mission
HRI exists to make AI displacement visible. By quantifying replacement in a single real-time metric, we aim to inform workers, policymakers, and institutions — so preparation happens before disruption, not after.